The mortgage giant: Five interest rate cuts this year

INTEREST AND INFLATION

Economics (TT)

SBAB expects five interest rate cuts from the Riksbank this year. The forecast comes in a new economic report from the state mortgage bank.

The first reduction of 0.25 percentage points from today’s 4.00 percent will already come in May. And when Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen and his executive board put an end to the year, the interest rate has been lowered to 2.75 percent, according to SBAB’s economists.

If the mortgage interest rate were to follow downwards by 1.25 percentage points, it would reduce the interest cost for a loan of three million kroner by 37,500 kroner per year – or 3,125 kroner per month – before interest deduction.

“The signals from the ECB most recently were that they do not rule out a reduction in June. If that does not happen, I think that after a first reduction in May, the Riksbank will choose to wait with the next reduction, unless inflation plummets in May. That the key interest rate should be reduced in total by at least 1 percentage point during the year – probably more – is, however, perfectly reasonable given how the inflation outlook looks in Sweden right now,” says Robert Boije, Chief Economist at SBAB.

At the turn of the year, SBAB had lending of just over SEK 517 billion.