The Social Democrats are leaking voters in several directions

The opposition continues to have an advantage in public opinion on the Tidöparties, but the distance has shrunk compared to last year’s top ratings. In April, it adds up to 6 percentage points, according to the DN/Ipsos voter barometer.

The opposition’s lead has largely been due to the fact that the Social Democrats were clearly above their election results for a long time. The party’s support skyrocketed after the election when the Tidö government initially faced major problems. A betrayal debate raged around election promises about cheaper electricity and fuel, while the NATO process came to a standstill.

In line with the Tidöpartierna has delivered on its promises and Sweden finally became a member of NATO, the tailwind has diminished for S. In the new survey, voter support for S is estimated at 33 percent. You can go back to October 2022 to find a lower quote in the DN/Ipsos measurement series.

– It is not a welcome present for the party ahead of the celebration of 1 May and the run-up to the EU elections, says Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos.

The support for S has moved up and down a bit in recent months, the decline is not dramatic but still clear. Since the March survey, it is about 2 percentage points. The difference to the mandate period’s highest quotation, in June 2023, is 4 percentage points.

The loss consists primarily of voters that S won during the previous upswing. And the party leaks both left and right: the voter streams go to both the Left Party and the Green Party as well as the Sweden Democrats.

According to Nicklas Källebring, it is hardly any single event that is behind the decline. However, he points to the shrinking trust in Magdalena Andersson that has been seen in previous surveys from DN/Ipsos. Her ability to attract middle voters, not least women, has long been seen as one of the party’s greatest assets, but the effect seems to be waning.

– Magdalena Andersson is still more of a float than a sink for her party, says Nicklas Källebring.

The Green Party gets its highest number since the election, 6 percent rounded up. The party has received some attention in the media during the measurement period, among other things regarding the choice of spokesperson. Former culture minister Amanda Lind has been presented as the election committee’s candidate.

Nicklas Källebring also believes that the debate surrounding the gender identity law may have benefited the MP, who argued strongly for the law. It may have mobilized MP voters.

The same debate may have benefited the Sweden Democrats, who, on the contrary, are strong opponents of the law and got a chance to profile themselves against the Moderates. SD is also noted for an increase from 19 to 21 percent.

The symbolic struggle for first place among the Tidö parties seems to stand. The SD and the Moderates have alternated at the top in the latest polls. Now, with 19 percent, M is once again down to second place.

The Liberals (3 percent rounded up) and the Christian Democrats (4 rounded up) remain below or at the barrier. For L, it is the second worst listing of the term.

The center keeps the nose above the surface with 5 percent rounded up. With 8 percent, the Left Party is roughly where it has been since the election.

Newly started Folklistan has set minimal footprint in the measurement. It is about an initiative from the former Christian Democrat Sara Skyttedal and former Social Democrat Jan Emanuel. They primarily aim at the EU elections, but have also registered for the 2026 parliamentary elections.

Despite fairly extensive reporting, only a few respondents mention Folklistan in the survey.

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