The capacity of the electricity grid and the competition with other energy-demanding sectors become central factors when vehicles, ships and aircraft in the country switch to electric operation. How will the transport industry cope with the transformation?
“The focus must be on the expansion of infrastructure, licensing and long-term action from politics,” says Nils Paul, infrastructure expert.
The green transition is driven by electricity and affects all sectors in the country. The need for electricity is increasing in step with the transition, from today’s 134.9 TWh per year to possibly 290 TWh in 2050 according to a scenario analysis by Swedish Enterprise. The transport sector is a key player in the transition and accounts for around a third of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions. In order to reach the goal of net zero emissions in 2045, a transition to electrification in the transport sector is mainly required. The discussion about the transport sector’s electricity needs and the availability of electricity was recently taken up at a seminar organized by Swedish Business, where a report from Sweco was also presented.
– We are on the right track and will make it through the transition, stated Bezawit Tsegai, one of the report’s authors.
Consumption is increasing rapidly
The report shows that electrification of the transport sector increases today’s consumption from around 3 TWh to 21 TWh in 2045. Nils Paul, infrastructure expert, emphasizes that this electricity demand is not worrying in itself, but the challenges lie in the infrastructure, the capacity of the electricity grid and competition with other energy-demanding sectors. In road transport, electrification is most prominent, especially in passenger cars where around 25 percent are expected to be electric as early as 2030. However, the number of electric light trucks is increasing more slowly, while heavy trucks are not developing as quickly.
Tina Thorsell from Transportföretagen points out that the industry supports the transition to electric vehicles, but that the challenges lie in the charging infrastructure and the higher cost of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles, as well as the reluctance of customers to bear these costs.
More charging points are needed
The hauliers face the challenge of finding suitable places to load their large vehicles. Currently, the charging infrastructure for heavy traffic is not as developed as for passenger cars. Many small carriers have to make significant investments in infrastructure to meet the needs. Shipping is also a large energy user with a growing need for electricity. Today, it is mainly smaller ships, archipelago boats and road ferries that are electrified, but infrastructure limitations slow down development.
– We believe that there is a potential to do that with every single ship that is at the quay. We are heading towards a decision to invest in fully electrified larger ships. The technology is already on board but the availability of power is missing. So it is entirely dependent on us being able to get some kind of commitment from the land side and that is where it still stops, said Fredrik Larsson, environment and climate manager at Swedish Shipping.
Lack of power
The transport sector faces capacity challenges in meeting the needs for power and fast charging, especially in places where the electricity infrastructure is not sufficiently sized for future demands. The work to make transport fossil-free is both the industry’s own responsibility and dependent on the policy’s long-term measures to ensure the necessary infrastructure and investment support. Increased investment in alternative fuels and fossil-free electricity production is also required to meet industrial needs and produce electrofuels.
When it comes to the availability of electricity, the transport industry is one of the smaller consumers, even with the changeover, but nevertheless has to compete with the large green industrial investments that are being made, for example in northern Sweden:
“There are parts of the development where the transport sector can more clearly be thought of as competing with other sectors, such as in the availability of bio-raw material and in terms of direct electrification also in the availability of electricity,” analyzed the report authors and was agreed by Mattias Johansson, responsible for public affairs at Volvo Cars .
– Sometimes we think that the cars and buses and trucks will draw so much electricity, but that’s not really true. Most of the electricity needed is for industry. We have to look up. The burning point is whether enough fossil-free electricity will be produced and delivered, said Mattias Johansson, responsible for public affairs at Volvo Cars.
– Transport has often been in focus, but now we can state that the transport of the future needs around 21 TWh, but this does not constitute a large part of the resources that the transition needs. The focus must instead be on the expansion of infrastructure, licensing and long-term action from politics, says Nils Paul, an expert on infrastructure at Swedish Enterprise, who hopes for a de-dramatization of the transport industry’s direct electricity needs.
Source: Swedish Industry
