The conflict between Israel and Palestine escalated after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. It has also affected American politics and will affect the outcome of the election results later this year, according to Stephen Zunes, professor of political science.
Zunes says that Joe Biden’s passivity and tone towards Israel is a contributing factor to the polarization, something that has also affected his young voters, and mainly university students.
– In the US, young people tend to sympathize with Palestine and human rights, so the protests that have been and are ongoing are reminiscent of the protests that took place in connection with the Iraq war and during apartheid in South Africa.
At New York University Columbia has been warned of gross anti-Semitism and Jewish students have been advised against visiting the institution. Footage shared on social media shows a man chanting that Jews must prepare for replays of the October 7 Hamas massacre.
The war in Gaza has caused college students to turn their backs on Joe Biden, worrying the incumbent if he wants to challenge Donald Trump for power for the next four years.
– Young people have played a decisive role in the recent elections. They usually vote for Democrats and when that number is high, the party wins the election, says Stephen Zunes, professor of political science at the University of San Francisco.
How serious is the situation for Biden?
– Quite serious. College students are upset about Biden’s handling of the conflict in the Middle East so that could lead to Trump winning, even if young people don’t want him. Many who had intended to vote for the Democrats refrain from voting.
Photo: University of San Francisco
In general, support for Donald Trump among young people is low. But nowadays, trust in Joe Biden has also decreased significantly and is down to 25 percent, according to Zunes.
– Looking at the opinion figures, more young people have turned against Biden’s stance against Israel than against George Bush when he attacked Iraq.
Normally, foreign policy plays a small role when elections are held in the United States, as long as the country is not at war. But the situation in Gaza has turned the situation around and Joe Biden still doesn’t seem to have a plan for how to turn around and win back the trust of university students.
Facts.The young voters and Biden
In a New York Times and Siena College poll from early November 2023, Biden is supported by 30 percent of voters under 45 in key swing states. The likely challenger Trump gets 29 percent. Leading is the independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr, with 32 percent.
According to a mid-November NBC News poll, Trump even has a slight lead (46 percent for Trump to 42 percent for Biden) among Americans 18 to 34 years old.
Concerns about the economy are a major reason why young Americans are hesitating about Biden. Not even a third of voters under 35 think the economy is in good shape, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.
Young voters are also strongly dissatisfied with the way Biden has handled the Gaza war.
In a Pew Research poll, 46 percent of respondents under the age of 30 say they are critical of the White House’s actions. Only 19 percent are behind Biden’s handling. Others in the measurement are uncertain.
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A solution may be that he sharpens the tone against Israel considerably and reduces arms deliveries.
– Biden plays on both sides, he condemns anti-Semitism, which one should of course do, but at the same time civilians and children die. He has no plan and has refused to tell Israel outright. He has the power to do it – if he wants to. Biden can say that he is protecting Israel from Iran but that he will stop selling weapons in the same way that he has done so far.
Do you think he will tighten his tone in order not to lose the election?
– Previous presidents, for example Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama stopped several Israeli offensive military operations. They did it by threatening arms sanctions. So far, Biden has placed the responsibility on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and it has not worked. Many are scratching their heads and wondering why he doesn’t act more resolutely, says Stephen Zunes.
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