Last Saturday, the US House of Representatives finally voted yes to another aid package for Ukraine. On Tuesday, the Senate did the same. President Joe Biden stated that the deliveries of weapons and ammunition will begin already this week.
It is in the time of the count.
Biden put forward the proposal back in October, but it has been blocked by Republicans in Congress, cheered on by Donald Trump. At the turn of the year, the last dollars previously clubbed ran out. American arms deliveries ceased. Europe has not had the ability to cover up.
The consequence is that Ukraine has only been able to use 2,000 artillery shells per day against Russia’s 10,000. Avdijivka has fallen, a total of 500 square kilometers is estimated to have been lost. Ukraine has also lacked the air defenses necessary to defend itself against Moscow’s terrorist bombings of critical infrastructure – and of the city of Kharkiv.
Now help is finally arriving. It is about $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. One year it is expected to give Kiev – and Europe.
But what of it remains after the election this fall? Hopefully Biden wins. But the risk is that it will instead be the man who last time questioned both NATO and the alliances with Japan and South Korea.
In a classic speech In 1940, American President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared that the United States would be the “arsenal of democracy”. It is a function the country still fulfills. The emergency package includes not only support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, but also for Taiwan – to deter China. And to Israel, to keep Iran and its allies at bay.
For Joe Biden, it is obvious: the United States must fulfill its role as the ultimate guarantor of democracies. It was obvious to rally the West when Putin set out on Ukraine. It goes without saying to meet Beijing’s authoritarian ambitions. It is crystal clear that the threats are connected. Beijing and Moscow – as well as Iran – want an order where the strong rules and rules in their backyard. China has also done its best to ease the pressure created by sanctions against Russia, increasing exports, including of things that keep the Kremlin’s war machine rolling.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a visit to Beijing. He brought with him criticism of the regime’s human rights violations in Xinjiang – and demands that support for Putin’s war must end.
But what of it remains after the election this fall? Hopefully Biden wins. But the risk is that it will instead be the man who last time questioned both NATO and the alliances with Japan and South Korea. Now he wants to sit down with Putin and discuss the fate of Ukraine.
Europe is clearly not ready for this.
Time is not on Putin’s side. At least not if the West sticks together behind Ukraine. This applies even if the US fails but Europe actually gears up.
The basic prerequisites for replacing the American arsenal are there. The EU’s economy is many times larger and more well developed than the Russian one. The country has suffered enormous losses. The sanctions have hit hard, and even if Russia – thanks to help from China, among other things – has succeeded in increasing the production of military equipment, it is hardly a particularly sustainable economic model.
Time is not on Putin’s side. At least not if the West sticks together behind Ukraine. This applies even if the US fails but Europe actually gears up.
The days before Blinken arrived in China, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was there. His main issue was trade – not human rights or Taiwan. He talked about Russia, but he didn’t have any hard demands with him at all. Unfortunately, it also says something about the crisis insight.
An American aid package has been hammered out – perhaps the last.
It must be a wake-up call for Europe. Not a reason to fall asleep again.
