With Autolivs report at lunchtime on Friday completed, one can in practice sum up the reporting period for the very largest companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. In addition to Nibe and Sinch, all operating companies included in the fine index OMXS30 have now released their figures and the big picture is that a narrow majority beat analysts’ profit forecasts, while there is a more mixed result when it comes to sales.
Total 15 of the 24 companies, corresponding to 63 percent, have come up with a higher operating profit than expected. It is not a number that is exuberant in historical terms, but then you have to take into account that the disappointments have been quite small, while the happy surprises have beaten the forecasts by a larger margin. On average, the deviation is just over 5 percent, while the median company has exceeded profit forecasts by 3.5 percent.
Corresponding for sales is that only 42 percent have beaten forecasts while 33 percent have missed. Here, the average deviation is only 1 percent and the median company has topped the sales forecasts.
In the table below we have listed how it has looked for each company, as well as how the price reaction has been on the report day.
| The OMXS30 companies | Price reaction on the report day | Deviation sales | Deviation profit |
| ABB | 6.0% | 3% | 4% |
| Alfa Laval | 7.8% | 11% | -6% |
| Car Life* | 3.0% | 0% | 7% |
| Assa Abloy | -3.0% | -1% | 0% |
| Atlas Copco | 8.4% | 9% | 2% |
| AstraZeneca | 6.4% | 8% | 7% |
| The car | -0.1% | -4% | -11% |
| Electrolux* | 2.3% | 3% | 12% |
| Ericsson | 1.8% | -3% | 19% |
| Essity | 1.0% | 0% | 10% |
| Evolution | -5.3% | 0% | 0% |
| Wasp | 8.7% | 3% | 9% |
| Handelsbanken | -12.1% | -1% | -1% |
| Hexagon* | -2.0% | -3% | -3% |
| H&M | 15.2% | 0% | 53% |
| Nordea | 0.8% | 2% | 13% |
| Sandvik | -4.4% | 1% | -10% |
| SCA* | 0.5% | -4% | -3% |
| SEB | -0.9% | 5% | 11% |
| SKF * | 2.8% | -1% | 3% |
| Swedbank | 1.0% | 0% | 4% |
| Tele2 | 6.7% | 0% | 1% |
| Telia | -4.8% | -2% | 0% |
| Volvo | 2.0% | 1% | 7% |
| Average: | 1.7% | 1.1% | 5.3% |
| Median: | 1.4% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| Source: Infront/Place | |||
| Footnote: Refers to adjusted operating results. Sales refers to orders where the companies report it, otherwise turnover. | |||
| * Course reaction read Friday at 12.30 | |||
What is then for companies and sectors that have excelled in the flood of reports this time?
One of them are the big banks, with Handelsbanken being the most eye-catching play this quarter. It is true that the results and earnings have not deviated extremely much from expectations in any of the banks, but it is carelessly expressed the wrong sources of income that have been strong.
The important namely, the net interest income has deviated negatively in three of the four major banks, only Nordea came in higher than expected, while the smaller and less stable contribution from the transaction net has taken the analysts to bed.
The credit losses have at the same time been vanishingly small despite the tough climate for many companies and individuals and in Handelsbanken’s case it was not even losses but recoveries of previous provisions and thus a positive entry. How the various items have stood up to expectations in the four banks is shown in the table below.
| Deviation from forecast | ||||
| Net interest | Sample net | Trans.net | Credit losses | |
| Nordea | 1% | -1% | 19% | -61% |
| SEB | -1% | 2% | 48% | -86% |
| SHB | -3% | -3% | 69% | >-100% |
| Swedbank | -2% | 5% | 17% | -73% |
| Source: Infront | ||||
Ensured reception on the stock exchange, it is also Handelsbanken which is in a class of its own with a price drop of as much as 12 percent. A decline that can be seen as a withdrawal from new CEO Michael Green’s trust account as he had gone hard with a cost-effective agenda, at the same time as costs increased and revenues decreased in the quarter.
In it at the other end of the stock market reactions are partly H&M, which reported several weeks ago, partly Getinge, which came up with a good report. But more remarkable in view of the company’s size is Atlas Copco’s roughly 8 percent lift after a report with stable results and a significantly better order intake than feared.
The workshop sector can otherwise be described as a bit scattered this quarter with some minor disappointments but at the same time no major warning flags when it comes to the economic picture and demand. Rather, it has been a parade of repeated forecasts and outlooks, sweetened with a slightly more hopeful tone around both China and products that are early in the economic cycle.
A negative effect from the early Easter and weaknesses in terms of timing have also been highlighted in some cases, something that should reasonably provide a headwind instead of a headwind in the next reporting period. It remains to be seen if it is described as an external circumstance even then or if that detail happens to be lost along the way.
