Experts: This is the only way the transport industry can cope with electrification

THE ELECTRIFICATION

The capacity of the electricity grid and also the competition with other energy-demanding industrial ventures will be decisive when the country’s vehicles, ships and aircraft are electrified. “The focus must be on the expansion of infrastructure, licensing and long-term action from politics,” says Nils Paul, infrastructure expert.

The green conversion is electric and covers all industries in the country. As it continues, the electricity demand increases from today’s electricity consumption of 134.9 TWh per year. In a scenario analysis produced by the Swedish Business Association, depending on how electrification develops, Sweden’s electricity needs could be 290 TWh in 2050. This means at least a doubling, perhaps even more.

An important cog in the transition is the transport sector. Today, transport on roads and railways, at sea and in the air accounts for about a third of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions. By 2045, Sweden’s goal is to have net zero emissions, and for the transport sector, the transition from fossil fuels is mostly about electrification to cope with that transition. But how big is the transport sector’s need for electricity and is the electricity enough? It was discussed in the past few days at a seminar organized by Swedish Business, where at the same time a report, prepared by Sweco, was presented.

– We are on the right track and will make it through the transition, stated Bezawit Tsegai, one of the report’s authors.

Rapidly increased consumption

The report shows that an electrification of the transport industry increases today’s consumption of around 3 TWh to 21 TWh in 2045.

– There is in itself no worrying need for electricity in the future. The challenges, because there are a number of them, instead lie in infrastructure, the capacity of the electricity grid and also competition with other more energy-demanding industrial ventures, says Nils Paul, an expert in infrastructure.

Road transport is the part that has come the farthest in terms of electrification. This mainly applies to passenger cars, where growth is strong, and in the report, Sweco expects that as early as 2030, approximately 25 percent of all passenger cars will be electric cars. The number of electric light trucks is also increasing, although not at the same rate as passenger cars. When it comes to heavy trucks, the development is not as fast.

– Our members are positive about the transition and we are the first piece of the puzzle in reaching the climate goals that have been set. The problems are the charging infrastructure and the fact that electric vehicles are significantly more expensive to purchase and, in the next step, the customers’ willingness to pay. Customer demand for electric vehicles is high, but no one is interested in paying the costs. The haulage industry works with low margins and is not so structured that you can take that cost difference, said Tina Thorsell, head of public policy at Transportföretagen.

More charging points required

The hauliers are also grappling with the question of where and when the large vehicles should be loaded. An alternative is at the places where the goods are loaded and unloaded. But it will also require the possibility to charge while driving, and the charging points for heavy traffic are not as developed as for passenger cars.

– In general, we have many small haulage companies that will now make large investments in infrastructure, continued Tina Thorsell.

A large energy user with a large need for electricity is shipping. Today, it is mainly smaller ships, archipelago boats and road ferries that are electrified. There, too, it is the infrastructure that slows down development. Many ships connect to the local electricity grid when they are at the quay, in order to create their own electricity with diesel generators on board. All under the condition that there is an opportunity to connect to that particular touch.

– We believe that there is a potential to do that with every single ship that is at the quay. We are heading towards a decision to invest in fully electrified larger ships. The technology is already on board but the availability of power is missing. So it is entirely dependent on us being able to get some kind of commitment from the land side and that is where it still stops, said Fredrik Larsson, environment and climate manager at Swedish Shipping.

Lack of power

A lot of power is also needed to cope with both quantity and fast charging. Not infrequently, the charging stations are located in places out in the country where the electricity infrastructure is not designed for power output in the order of magnitude that the future requires.

– We have capacity challenges, noted Martin Olin from Energiföretagen.

The work to make transport in the country fossil-free is therefore partly a separate responsibility within the industry, but also closely connected with the development within the transition in general. Power grids and electrical systems must cope with the increasing stresses and be able to deliver the required power.

However, these are costs that the transport industry itself cannot bear, but there falls a responsibility on politics to work long-term with the necessary permits and infrastructure.

– It’s about money. The changeover goes as fast as politics wants and if they want this quick changeover, then investment support is needed in vehicles and charging points, investment support is needed to connect to the power grids, says Tina Thorsell.

In the larger perspective, investments will also be required to increase the production rate in terms of alternative fuels together with increased fossil-free electricity production both to cope with the industrial production itself and to be able to produce e.g. electrofuels.

– An enormous amount of electricity is required and it must be green, Fredrik Larsson stated.

When it comes to the availability of electricity, the transport industry is one of the smaller consumers, even with the changeover, but nevertheless has to compete with the large green industrial investments that are being made, for example in northern Sweden:

“There are parts of the development where the transport sector can more clearly be thought of as competing with other sectors, such as in the availability of bio-raw material and in terms of direct electrification also in the availability of electricity,” analyzed the report authors and was agreed by Mattias Johansson, responsible for public affairs at Volvo Cars .

– Sometimes we think that the cars and buses and trucks will draw so much electricity, but that’s not really true. Most of the electricity needed is for industry. We have to look up. The sticking point is whether enough fossil-free electricity will be produced and supplied, he said

“Transports have often been in focus, but now we can state that future transports need around 21 TWh.”

Nils Paul, an expert on infrastructure at Swedish Business and Industry, agreed and hopes for a de-dramatization of the transport industry’s direct electricity needs in the ongoing transition.

– Transport has often been in focus, but now we can state that the transport of the future needs around 21 TWh, but this does not constitute a large part of the resources that the transition needs. The focus must instead be on the expansion of infrastructure, licensing and long-term action from politics.